Probabilistic Classification Learning Task¶
HED Task ID: hedtsk_probabilistic_classification_learning
Also known as: Weather Prediction, Probabilistic Classification Learning, Weather Prediction Task, WPT
Multi-cue probabilistic prediction of a binary outcome with trial-by-trial feedback; learning curves index gradual procedural category learning.
Description¶
The Weather Prediction Task presents 1-3 cues from a set of 4 possible cards; participants predict a binary outcome (rain/sunshine). Each cue is probabilistically associated with outcomes (e.g., 75%/25%), requiring participants to learn from statistical patterns. Feedback is provided after each prediction. Critically, amnesic patients with medial temporal lobe damage show intact learning despite impaired conscious awareness of the task structure, implicating basal ganglia and striatal systems in implicit probabilistic learning.
Inclusion test¶
Procedure |
Participants predict an outcome (e.g., rain/sun) based on combinations of cues (cards), where each cue is probabilistically (not deterministically) related to outcomes. Learning is incremental across hundreds of trials. |
Manipulation |
Cue-outcome probability structure; number of cues per trial; feedback type (corrective, observational); concurrent vs. single task. |
Measurement |
Accuracy learning curve; optimal response rate; strategy analysis (multi-cue vs. single-cue); comparison to Parkinson patients (basal ganglia involvement). |
Variations¶
Variation |
Description |
Justification |
|---|---|---|
Standard Weather Prediction (4 cues, binary outcome) |
Four cards with probabilistic associations to rain/sun. |
Canonical probabilistic categorization with cue combinations |
Deterministic Version |
100% cue-outcome mappings; becomes explicit rule learning. |
Cues perfectly predict outcome; removes probabilistic uncertainty |
Varying Probability Levels |
Different probabilistic strengths (60/40 to 90/10). |
Cue-outcome reliability systematically manipulated; different learning statistics |
Information-Integration Category Learning |
Multi-dimensional continuous stimuli; optimal categorization requires integration across dimensions. |
Categories defined by integration of dimensions; different decision rule |
Rule-Based Category Learning (comparison) |
Stimuli categorizable by single explicit rule; dissociates from implicit systems. |
Explicit rule applicable; contrasts implicit vs. explicit learning systems |
Feedback vs. Observation Learning |
Learning from trial-by-trial feedback vs. observing cue-outcome pairings. |
Active feedback vs. observational learning; different learning mechanism |
Transfer Test Variants |
New cue combinations or reversed contingencies after initial learning. |
Probe generalization with novel cue combinations; different test phase |
Cognitive processes¶
This task engages the following cognitive processes:
Key references¶
{‘authors’: ‘Knowlton, B. J., Squire, L. R., & Gluck, M. A.’, ‘year’: 1994, ‘title’: ‘Probabilistic classification learning in amnesia.’, ‘venue’: ‘Learning & Memory’, ‘venue_type’: ‘journal’, ‘journal’: ‘Learning & Memory’, ‘volume’: ‘1’, ‘issue’: ‘2’, ‘pages’: ‘106-120’, ‘doi’: ‘10.1101/lm.1.2.106’, ‘openalex_id’: None, ‘pmid’: None, ‘citation_string’: ‘Knowlton, B. J., Squire, L. R., & Gluck, M. A. (1994). Probabilistic classification learning in amnesia. Learning & Memory, 1(2), 106-120.’, ‘url’: ‘https://doi.org/10.1101/lm.1.2.106’, ‘source’: ‘crossref’, ‘confidence’: ‘high’, ‘verified_on’: ‘2026-04-20’}
{‘authors’: ‘Poldrack, R. A., Prabhakaran, V., Seger, C. A., & Gabrieli, J. D. E.’, ‘year’: 1999, ‘title’: ‘Striatal activation during acquisition of a cognitive skill.’, ‘venue’: ‘Neuropsychology’, ‘venue_type’: ‘journal’, ‘journal’: ‘Neuropsychology’, ‘volume’: ‘13’, ‘issue’: ‘4’, ‘pages’: ‘564-574’, ‘doi’: ‘10.1037//0894-4105.13.4.564’, ‘openalex_id’: None, ‘pmid’: None, ‘citation_string’: ‘Poldrack, R. A., Prabhakaran, V., Seger, C. A., & Gabrieli, J. D. (1999). Striatal activation during acquisition of a cognitive skill. Neuropsychology, 13(4), 564-574.’, ‘url’: ‘https://doi.org/10.1037//0894-4105.13.4.564’, ‘source’: ‘crossref’, ‘confidence’: ‘high’, ‘verified_on’: ‘2026-04-20’}
{‘authors’: ‘Seger, C. A.’, ‘year’: 2008, ‘title’: ‘How do the basal ganglia contribute to categorization? Their roles in generalization, response selection, and learning via feedback’, ‘venue’: ‘Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews’, ‘venue_type’: ‘journal’, ‘journal’: ‘Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews’, ‘volume’: ‘32’, ‘issue’: ‘2’, ‘pages’: ‘265-278’, ‘doi’: ‘10.1016/j.neubiorev.2007.07.010’, ‘openalex_id’: None, ‘pmid’: None, ‘citation_string’: ‘Seger, C. A. (2008). How do the basal ganglia contribute to categorization? Their roles in generalization, response selection, and learning via feedback. Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews, 32(2), 265-278.’, ‘url’: ‘https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neubiorev.2007.07.010’, ‘source’: ‘crossref’, ‘confidence’: ‘high’, ‘verified_on’: ‘2026-04-20’}
Recent references¶
{‘authors’: ‘Patterson, T. K., & Knowlton, B. J.’, ‘year’: 2018, ‘title’: ‘Subregional specificity in human striatal habit learning: a meta-analytic review of the fMRI literature’, ‘venue’: ‘Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences’, ‘venue_type’: ‘journal’, ‘journal’: ‘Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences’, ‘volume’: ‘20’, ‘issue’: None, ‘pages’: ‘75-82’, ‘doi’: ‘10.1016/j.cobeha.2017.10.005’, ‘openalex_id’: None, ‘pmid’: None, ‘citation_string’: ‘Knowlton, B. J., & Patterson, T. K. (2018). Habit formation and the striatum. Current Topics in Behavioral Neurosciences, 37, 275–295.’, ‘url’: ‘https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2017.10.005’, ‘source’: ‘crossref’, ‘confidence’: ‘high’, ‘verified_on’: ‘2026-04-20’}
{‘authors’: ‘Meeter, M., Myers, C. E., Shohamy, D., Hopkins, R. O., & Gluck, M. A.’, ‘year’: 2006, ‘title’: ‘Strategies in probabilistic categorization: Results from a new way of analyzing performance’, ‘venue’: ‘Learning & Memory’, ‘venue_type’: ‘journal’, ‘journal’: ‘Learning & Memory’, ‘volume’: ‘13’, ‘issue’: ‘2’, ‘pages’: ‘230-239’, ‘doi’: ‘10.1101/lm.43006’, ‘openalex_id’: None, ‘pmid’: None, ‘citation_string’: ‘Meeter, M., Myers, C. E., Shohamy, D., Hopkins, R. O., & Gluck, M. A. (2006). Strategies in probabilistic categorization: Results from a new way of analyzing performance. Learning & Memory, 13(2), 230–239.’, ‘url’: ‘https://doi.org/10.1101/lm.43006’, ‘source’: ‘crossref’, ‘confidence’: ‘high’, ‘verified_on’: ‘2026-04-20’}
{‘authors’: ‘Price, A. L.’, ‘year’: 2009, ‘title’: ‘Distinguishing the contributions of implicit and explicit processes to performance of the weather prediction task’, ‘venue’: ‘Memory & Cognition’, ‘venue_type’: ‘journal’, ‘journal’: ‘Memory & Cognition’, ‘volume’: ‘37’, ‘issue’: ‘2’, ‘pages’: ‘210-222’, ‘doi’: ‘10.3758/mc.37.2.210’, ‘openalex_id’: None, ‘pmid’: None, ‘citation_string’: ‘Price, A. L. (2009). Distinguishing the contributions of implicit and explicit processes to performance of the weather prediction task. Memory & Cognition, 37(2), 210–222.’, ‘url’: ‘https://doi.org/10.3758/mc.37.2.210’, ‘source’: ‘crossref’, ‘confidence’: ‘high’, ‘verified_on’: ‘2026-04-20’}
{‘authors’: ‘Foerde, K., Knowlton, B. J., & Poldrack, R. A.’, ‘year’: 2006, ‘title’: ‘Modulation of competing memory systems by distraction’, ‘venue’: ‘Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences’, ‘venue_type’: ‘journal’, ‘journal’: ‘Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences’, ‘volume’: ‘103’, ‘issue’: ‘31’, ‘pages’: ‘11778-11783’, ‘doi’: ‘10.1073/pnas.0602659103’, ‘openalex_id’: None, ‘pmid’: None, ‘citation_string’: ‘Foerde, K., Knowlton, B. J., & Poldrack, R. A. (2006). Modulation of competing memory systems by distraction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103(31), 11778–11783.’, ‘url’: ‘https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0602659103’, ‘source’: ‘crossref’, ‘confidence’: ‘high’, ‘verified_on’: ‘2026-04-20’}